By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
On one hand, it’d be easy to feel harmful for the Seattle Kraken. Their reward for making a monumental jump in Year 2 of the franchise is a first-round matchup against the defending champs.
On the deal of, even if it’s paused right here, the event has been undeniable, and the future is radiant. Staunch revel in that, y’know? The Golden Knights got a small bit too grasping a small bit too early, and it feels like they’re tranquil paying the payment. That’s a selection lesson payment finding out.
Within the intervening time, the Colorado Avalanche, banged up or now no longer, are about to initiate their title defense, with the similar bones as closing 300 and sixty five days’s juggernaut. They’re being graded on a distinctive scale. That’s how it’s speculated to work. Is there any chance Seattle comes out of this with one thing more than a “jubilant to be right here” trophy?
The Odds
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Here’s it, doubtlessly the most lopsided collection of the outlet round. The Avalanche are deserved heavy favorites as one in all the league’s most fascinating groups.
Within the occasion you’ve time-traveled from October that makes superb sense — it’s the defending Stanley Cup champions vs. a second-300 and sixty five days growth workforce. Nonetheless within the seven months since that will feel slightly unfair to a Kraken workforce that obtained 46 games. (Within the occasion you’re tranquil with us Mr. Time Traveller, yes, the Kraken obtained 46 games this 300 and sixty five days. No, we’re now no longer lying to you).
The Kraken were a huge shock this season and that’s segment of the reason the mannequin doesn’t give them mighty of an opportunity. Now no longer against arguably the class of the West. The mannequin doesn’t beget mighty faith of their performance being repeatable, striking mighty more inventory in Colorado’s video display file as an elite workforce.
the stats from the 2 groups this 300 and sixty five days suggests the 2 golf equipment aren’t as some distance off as these odds counsel. Nonetheless the Avalanche beget handled injuries all season that obfuscate how right they’re when wholesome. They’re now no longer fully wholesome, now no longer with out captain Gabriel Landeskog who didn’t play a single sport this 300 and sixty five days, nonetheless they’ll be as shut as they beget got been all season for Recreation 1. And that spells effort for Seattle. This collection shouldn’t be shut.
The Numbers
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To the shock of no person, the Avalanche payment better offensively than their Spherical 1 opponent. At five-on-five this season, Colorado created more shots and quality prospects than the Kraken. Their offensive generation became as soon as additionally slightly more balanced, whereas the Kraken leaned in extra with their flee-based entirely entirely play. Seattle, and their depth scorers, set up targets at a elevated clip — 3.16 per 60, which led the league when when put next with Colorado’s 2.67 which most fascinating ranked 12th.
The Avalanche most fascinating undoubtedly matched expectations with their goal scoring, which is weird and wonderful for a workforce with their finishing talent. That trended within the suitable route within the second half and is one thing to factor in. The Kraken, on the deal of hand, trended within the opposite method within the second half; they didn’t beget as many targets to verbalize for what they created. That’s what tends to occur when the results don’t match the underlying play. If they were going into the playoffs with slightly more reinforcement, presumably within the trend of Andre Burakovsky, there’d be slightly more hope that they can beget to tranquil kick it up a level.
One of many weakest areas for Seattle is the energy play, which became as soon as below reasonable in shot quality and goal scoring. Colorado, to overview, became as soon as within the tip-half in both metrics. When that top unit is wholesome, it’s disturbing to leisurely down given how mighty talent is loaded on it; that’s why they performed sixth with 9.18 targets per 60.
On the deal of live of the ice, the 2 groups are rather shut in what they offer up whereas shorthanded. The inequity is between expectations and reality as a consequence of the Kraken conceded a elevated payment of targets against which falls on goaltending.
That’s similar at five-on-five, too. Seattle permits fewer shots against — the third-lowest payment within the league, to be staunch. And these two groups are neck-and-neck in anticipated targets, both ranking within the tip 10. The Kraken tranquil beget strengths nonetheless shaky goaltending to reduction it up. It’s now no longer as pronounced as closing 300 and sixty five days, nonetheless it’s tranquil now no longer an issue of certainty, either.
The Grand Question
Can Seattle’s forward depth overpower Colorado’s stars?
The first column on the Kraken’s stat sheet is proof ample that their formula for workforce-building has, to this level, long past in accordance with notion. Thirteen avid gamers performed the unprecedented season with 13 targets. Six had now no longer now no longer up to 20. At the tip were Jared McCann (40), a third-line center with Pittsburgh who, at instances, scored like a first-line winger; and Matty Beniers (24), the group’s first draft decide and — now no longer coincidentally — first try at adding undoubtedly elite talent to the fold.
As an alternative of that? Mainly only a bunch of stable hockey avid gamers. It couldn’t beget labored out better. After showing indicators of this form of thing of their inaugural season whereas getting knee-capped by their goaltenders, the Kraken went out and earned themselves a playoff space. Beniers had himself an smartly-known rookie season. Shane Wright, tranquil, became as soon as came across money at the No. 4 decide. There will be deal of opportunities to transfer stable talent on to the tip shelf. Within the intervening time, even if, the Kraken seem like they’re attempting to offer four nickels for a quarter.
Against the Avs, Seattle’s most fascinating hope would perhaps perhaps very smartly be for the backside six to paddle buck wild. Eeli Tolvanen, picked off waivers from the Predators, has the third-absolute most practical targets/60 on the workforce (1.34) and a legitimately unpleasant shot. The Predators failed for years to turn it into a offer of producing. Then, Seattle will get a reduction of him, throws him on a line with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde and, wham, 16 targets in Forty eight games.
As a total, that line has some legit pop. If they’re matching up against Lars Eller, Denis Malgin and Alex Newhook, it’s smartly at some level of the realm of risk they’ll get the scoring combat. Playing Daniel Sprong on the fourth line, the place his defensive elements would perhaps perhaps smartly be mitigated by his teammates and his competition alike, is a pleasing trick, too. Getting Sprong accessible against Colorado’s fourth line and third pairing would perhaps perhaps undoubtedly consequence in one thing. Upsets are built on secondary scorers coming up immense a handful of instances over the course of a collection.
The location for Seattle, even if, is that the Avs beget some first payment depth avid gamers, too — Malgin in particular has been an environment friendly offer of targets on the backside six. Plus, there’s a total cluster of talent at the tip of Colorado’s lineup that figures to get Seattle’s marginal positive aspects within the relaxation of the matchup so a lot less relevant. This isn’t supposed as a knock on what the Kraken beget done; on the opposite, their designate of egalitarian play is a cope with to factor in. All issues notion of, even if, it’s better to beget two 100-level scorers than none.
The X-Factor
Produce the Avalanche beget ample firepower with out Gabriel Landeskog?
Within the occasion you’re in a flee: Yeah.
Within the occasion you desire to beget a small bit more: Yeah, for certain they cease. For now. Even with Landeskog formally out of the lineup, the talent Colorado boasts alongside its first line is tranquil uninteresting-right. That community alone — Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Evan Rodrigues — can paddle goal-for-goal with any unit within the NHL, let alone the Beniers line. Skill like that can beat anyone at any time. Elephantine cease.
Mix within the truth that McCann, immense as his season became as soon as, scored 27 of his 40 targets against non-playoff groups and that Beniers is tranquil most fascinating 20, and it’s rather easy to mediate Seattle shedding the tip-line combat decisively ample to render the relaxation of the sport irrelevant. Is that doubtless? No — nonetheless it’s tranquil a more realistic consequence than the Avs being smartly and undoubtedly outgunned. If Cale Makar weren’t now heading in the right direction to play in Recreation 1, it’d doubtlessly be a longer discussion. Unfortunately for Seattle, that isn’t the case. Anything is feasible, nonetheless now no longer all the pieces is realistic. Colorado performed with 109 elements in 82 games and had Landeskog on the bench for zero of them. They know what they’re doing right here.
The upper question would perhaps perhaps very smartly be what Colorado would cease in Spherical 2, when they’d be facing a workforce — Minnesota or Dallas — with stars at the tip to rival their have. We’re now no longer there yet, even if.
The Rosters
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Offensive and Defensive Ranking explainer
Of nearly any that that you just may perhaps factor in matchup in these playoffs there may perhaps be none that has a wider discrepancy within the debate between huge title-energy and depth. The Avalanche are a machine attributable to their elite core.
That’s what makes this a huge mismatch, a divulge that the Kraken will beget a very sophisticated time fixing for. There may perhaps be merely no resolution anywhere within the lineup for what the Avalanche stars can lift to the table. MacKinnon is a 100-level scorer and a top five forward on this planet. Rantanen is a 50-goal scorer and a top five winger. Makar is a generational defenseman, the suitable within the league who is a top five defenseman at both ends of the ice. Toews is a defensive stud who ranks within the league’s top 10 among all defensemen. How cease you cease that?
Up entrance Colorado’s top line itself is a big advantage. Rodrigues has became into a serviceable plod-in player and he’s labored smartly this 300 and sixty five days being the defensive judgment of actual and unsuitable whereas MacKinnon and Rantanen paddle off. The trio performed 231 minutes collectively this 300 and sixty five days earning 59 p.c of the anticipated targets whereas scoring 64 p.c of the staunch targets.
Shutting down MacKinnon and co. entirely doesn’t seem feasible, nonetheless slowing them down will be key for the Kraken. That job will attain the total trend down to either Alex Wennberg’s line or Yanni Gourde’s line with the latter having some expertise in being a postseason shutdown center extraordinaire.
That will beget to tranquil liberate Beniers, McCann and Jordan Eberle — Seattle’s most fascinating offensive avid gamers. The location there may perhaps be that the relaxation of Colorado’s forward community is loaded with defensively stable avid gamers — in particular Colorado’s second line. J.T. Compher had an unprecedented breakout season for the Avalanche, ample to get their preseason must replace Nazem Kadri a moot level. Defensively he performed smartly ample to enter the fringes of the Selke conversation and he’s flanked by two analytics darlings who’re superb at pushing play up the ice.
Seattle does beget some good avid gamers lower down the lineup that can chip in atmosphere friendly depth scoring to steadiness the scales slightly, nonetheless the Avs additionally beget the defensive skill to counter that. Newcomer Lars Eller struggled offensively this season, nonetheless he’s tranquil got some defensive juice.
The Kraken are deep, nonetheless total they only don’t seem deep ample to paddle toe-to-toe with the defending champs. The lack of Burakovsky is additionally a immense ingredient — he provides two share elements to the chances and would paddle a lengthy formula against making this workforce be conscious slightly more ambitious. Now no longer deep ample the place winning is all that doubtless, nonetheless ample to look now no longer now no longer up to some course forward. Excellent now it looks bleak.
On the reduction-live, the variation between the 2 groups is solely as stark. But again, it begins at the tip the place Makar and Toews kind the league’s most fascinating defensive pair. In 753 minutes collectively this 300 and sixty five days, they earned 59 p.c of the anticipated targets and 62 p.c of the targets attributable to both avid gamers’ elite puck-transferring expertise.
On the deal of aspect of the aisle, Vince Dunn provides some huge title-energy of his have after an excellent breakout 300 and sixty five days. He became as soon as one in all the immense causes Seattle’s offense popped so mighty — his on-ice targets-per-60 charges were off the charts right — and he had terrific chemistry with defensive stalwart Adam Larsson. That duo became as soon as a radiant space of Seattle’s season, nonetheless they only don’t overview to Colorado’s top duo.
That will be absolute most practical for any workforce and the goal right here for Seattle will be to weather the massive title-powered storm and hope that the workforce’s depth advantages can prevail. That applies at forward and it applies the total similar on defense the place the Avalanche are a top-heavy community. Specifically with what number of offensive weapons the Kraken beget at the backside of the lineup. Colorado’s backside four is proficient, nonetheless their results at five-on-five this 300 and sixty five days underwhelmed — ample to now no longer be conscious too some distance off from the projections of Seattle’s have unremarkable backside four. Bowen Byram and Samuel Girard are stable puck-movers and beget doubtlessly the most seemingly to offer more than anticipated right here, nonetheless we’ll must look it to undoubtedly call it a discernible advantage in Colorado’s desire.
The final nail within the coffin is the goaltending matchup. Philipp Grubauer hasn’t been the similar since leaving the Avalanche and is the suitable below-reasonable goalie within the playoffs. He’s been better this 300 and sixty five days saving five targets above anticipated — appropriate in accordance with the place he became as soon as in 2021 with Colorado — nonetheless that’s now no longer moderately ample to natty away the stink of closing season. He allowed 31.5 targets above anticipated then and the ever-fresh menace of that Grubauer showing up makes him a fancy goalie to guess on. Martin Jones undoubtedly started more games this season, nonetheless he may perhaps perhaps be an superb more horrifying choice. This became as soon as his third straight season permitting over 10 targets above anticipated.
Neither choice is promising for the Kraken and that makes goaltending yet any other Avalanche advantage. Alexandar Georgiev perfectly seized the chance to vary into a rotund-fledged starter for Colorado this season saving 17 targets above anticipated with a .917 set share. The Avalanche are immense at making issues easy on their goaltending, nonetheless Georgiev became as soon as tranquil stable in his have appropriate.
Even supposing he isn’t, Colorado has ample advantages at some level of the lineup over Seattle that it will now no longer subject either formula.
The Key Matchup
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Nathan MacKinnon vs. Matty Beniers
Even supposing a workforce wants to approach workforce-building in a completely different method and beget the balanced approach that the Kraken beget created this 300 and sixty five days, it helps to be headlined by some huge title energy. That’s what Beniers is to the workforce. He’s a budding huge title who is a approved for the Calder Trophy, and rightfully so. The forward made some noise when he joined the workforce tedious closing 300 and sixty five days, and followed it up with an excellent rookie season.
Nonetheless as the workforce’s main little bit of huge title energy, he’s going to be matched up with the forward at the tip of the Avalanche. That’s MacKinnon, the celeb who scored a hat trick within the final unprecedented season sport to get Colorado on this matchup. Few groups can stack up their most fascinating player to MacKinnon, he’s legitimately one in all the suitable avid gamers on this planet. There’s the skill, walk, and outright skill to steal over games and will beget to tranquil his workforce forward. If there were any questions about that, he answered them closing postseason with a sport-altering performance that ended with a Stanley Cup ring. He followed it up this unprecedented season with 4.2 elements per 60, for the fifth most fascinating scoring payment within the league.
The dream for the Kraken is that Beniers can sooner or later blossom into a player of MacKinnon’s caliber. That’s what any workforce will beget to tranquil need for their young stars. Nonetheless appropriate now, there’s a huge disparity at the tip of the lineup on this head-to-head matchup, and it will change into draining for the Kraken.
The Bottom Line
If the Kraken win a mode to pull this off, it’d be one in all the suitable tales of the past few seasons. The closing growth workforce, for certain, had an early Cinderella flee that you just in all likelihood be conscious. Followers in Seattle getting their have, even if it’s in Year 2, may perhaps perhaps be cool.
It’d additionally be legitimately surprising. The Avs, in main strategies, are tranquil the Avs, nonetheless their most fascinating transfer may perhaps perhaps be to get moderately hastily work right here and hope Minnesota vs. Dallas lasts as lengthy as that that you just may perhaps factor in.
References
How these projections work
How these projections performed closing season
Working out projection uncertainty
Sources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Monitoring by Corey Sznajder
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Photography)