NBA playoffs: Can LeBron James, Anthony Davis dumb Nikola Jokić, Nuggets’ high-octane offense?

No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Game 1: Lakers at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN)

Game 2: Lakers at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday (ESPN)

Game 3: Nuggets at Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)

Game 4: Nuggets at Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET Would perchance perhaps 22 (ESPN)

*Game 5: Lakers at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET Would perchance perhaps 24 (ESPN)

*Game 6: Nuggets at Lakers, 8:30 p.m. ET Would perchance perhaps 26 (ESPN)

*Game 7: Lakers at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET Would perchance perhaps 28 (ESPN)

*if major

BetMGM series odds: No. 1 Nuggets -155, No. 7 Lakers +125

For the 2nd time in four years, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers will sq. off for a situation within the NBA Finals. The 2023 Western Conference finals pits the postseason’s most up-to-the-minute offense in opposition to its stingiest defense: Denver scored a sizzling 118.7 points per 100 possessions to blitz previous the Timberwolves and Suns, while L.A. has allowed a scant 106.5 points per 100 in smothering the Grizzlies and the defending champion Warriors.

But while the groups and their principals haven’t changed since 2020, when the Lakers defeated Denver in 5 games en path to the franchise’s 17th NBA title, an unpleasant lot has. (Admire, shall we verbalize, this iteration now not being staged in a bespoke virus-circumventing bubble in Disney World.)

Solely six gamers who saw minutes in that series will characteristic within the rematch. For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray continue to lead the manner, making exquisite music in one of the league’s most devastating two-man games. Michael Porter Jr., who averaged fair beneath 22 minutes a game in opposition to L.A. in 2020 as a 21-one year-dilapidated whom head coach Michael Malone didn’t entirely believe on defense, has rounded real into a more actual supercharged third possibility … albeit one who serene every so usually doesn’t conclude games, due to Malone doesn’t entirely believe his (admittedly improved!) defense. No longer decrease than, now not as vital as he trusts Swiss Military knife Bruce Brown.

The Lakers return Anthony Davis, whose pink-sizzling soar-taking pictures performance from the bubble hasn’t carried over to 2023’s opening rounds, however who has been a ways and away the most dominant defensive player in these playoffs. They also serene delight in a man named LeBron Raymone James — now not reasonably as devastating at age 38 as he change into once in dispatching Denver at age 35, however serene eminently succesful of striking an opponent to sleep, as he did in placing 30-9-9 on Golden Mumble in Game 6 to ship Steph, Klay, Draymond and Co. off real into a long offseason.

After which there’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who started at taking pictures guard for the Lakers within the 2020 conference finals, averaging Half-hour a evening, taking pictures 44% from deep, and shouldering predominant responsibility for slowing down Murray. Now, though, Caldwell-Pope traces up alongside Murray within the backcourt of a Denver starting up 5 that has blitzed opponents by 9.1 points per 100 in this postseason; he fair tied his profession playoff high with 21 points within the Nuggets’ Game 6 obliteration of Phoenix.

Past them, though, things be conscious a miniature different in every retailers. All the pieces in Denver serene orbits spherical two-time MVP Jokić’s playmaking brilliance, however original recruits Caldwell-Pope, Brown, Aaron Gordon and rookie Christian Braun give the Nuggets more defensive versatility and functionality than that they had in 2020. And while the approved recipe stays the same for the Lakers — barely enough offense within the half-court and via opportunistic trail-pushing in transition to enable that suffocating defense to lengthen — the components are nearly entirely different, from the head coach (bye-bye, Frank Vogel; whats up, Darvin Ham) to a perimeter rotation dramatically overhauled in February to devastating originate.

The two groups split their season series, 2-2. It’s unclear fair how vital we can lift from the approved-season matchups, though, livid by all four took space sooner than the change deadline, when L.A. remade its roster and kicked its season into equipment. The Lakers’ 2nd-leading scorer in opposition to Denver change into once Russell Westbrook, and the glorious three Lakers to seem in all four games in opposition to the Nuggets had been Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn and Damian Jones; none of those guys is serene on the crew.

Know who’s, though? This man:

… which is the effect our conversation ought to start.

3 keys to the series

AD vs. Jokić: Irresistible force vs. immovable object?

Assist in 2020, the Lakers shrimp Jokić’s effectiveness — and yes, given how ludicrous an offensive weapon Jokić is, 22-7-5 on .616 real taking pictures is “shrimp” — with consistent physicality and aggression at the purpose of assault, paired with the ever-looming possibility of Davis lurking alongside the attend line. But Dwight Howard’s now not right here anymore. (He’s, cherish, undoubtedly now not right here.)

Neither, for that topic, is JaVale McGee. For the time being, the Lakers’ center rotation is Davis and a pair of 6-foot-8 or 6-foot-9 dudes — LeBron, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Wenyen Gabriel, the ghost of Tristan Thompson — that Jokić ought to be ready to overpower and crush. (There’s also Mo Bamba, however livid by he saw handiest rubbish-time minutes in opposition to Memphis and didn’t find any burn in opposition to Golden Mumble, I’d be a great deal surprised to observe him right here.)

Ham could well perchance assume to swap up the matchups, striking those energy forwards on Jokić and slotting Davis onto Gordon to enable him to bound off the much less-threatening shooter, assign a 2nd big body between Jokić and the basket, and usually strive and throw sand within the gears of the Nuggets’ tender-running offense. By and piquant, though, the bet right here is that the process of slowing down the two-time MVP will tumble to Davis. It’s one who he — cherish on the discipline of every different defender — has struggled with: In seven conferences over the excellent three approved seasons, Jokić has scored 51 points on 24-for-41 taking pictures (58.5%) with Davis as his closest defender, in step with 2nd Spectrum’s matchup records.

The handiest staunch success that Memphis or Golden Mumble had in scoring in opposition to the Lakers while Davis change into once on the ground came when they had been ready to pull him out of the paint and rep enough house to assault the rim in opposition to a Lakers crew without vital else within the manner of rim safety. Jokić, who’s taking pictures 19-for-40 (47.5%) from 3-point differ within the playoffs, ought to pose enough of a possibility to design him out; if the remainder of the Lakers aren’t locked into their coverages off the ball, the postseason’s leading lend a hand man can also find alternatives to situation up teammates slicing real into a lane now not locked down by its leading shot-blocker.

It’s now not cherish Jokić goes to merely grasp spherical on the perimeter, though; you don’t become the No. 1 paint scorer within the playoffs and the league’s premier low-submit possibility by floating outdoors. It’ll be exciting to observe how vital lend a hand the Lakers ship when Jokić gets the ball on the block; they double-teamed him on 11 of his 32 submit-usaagainst all of them over the approved season, in step with 2nd Spectrum, and the Nuggets scored 16 points on those journeys (1.Forty five points per possession).

That, as continually, is the rep-22 with Jokić. Lift two to the ball to strive and crank up the warmth on him, and he’ll over and over find the inaugurate man to rep huge-inaugurate 3-point makes an attempt. Shield all people at house on the shooters and lift your probabilities guarding him one-on-one, and he could well perchance assign fifty three on you. There are now not any easy answers for him; in opposition to Golden Mumble, though, Davis reminded all people fair how succesful he’s of acing the toughest tests. Slowing down Jokić enough to beat Denver four cases out of seven promises to be his most hard one but.

Can Aaron Gordon withhold the clamps on?

In the curiosity of equal time, it’s rate noting that Davis has fought fire with fire within the big-man matchup: In those seven approved-season conferences since the bubble, in step with 2nd Spectrum, he’s scored 61 points on 29-for-49 taking pictures (59.2%) with Jokić as his closest defender, giving fair as fair as he’s gotten as a rule.

In opinion, it’s most likely you’ll perhaps perchance also look Malone deciding to stick with the sinful-fits that Denver has deployed efficiently at cases in outdated rounds, striking the sooner and more athletic Gordon — original off two stellar rounds of defensive work on Karl-Anthony Cities and Kevin Durant, with situation responsibility on on the discipline of every different dangerous offensive player on the Wolves and Suns — on Davis. Sliding Gordon to AD would enable Denver to station Jokić on a non-shooter — you, Vando — which could withhold him out of pick-and-roll actions and nearer to the paint, the effect he’s such an part as a magnet-handed defensive rebounder limiting 2nd-probability alternatives for the opposition.

Environment aside the possibility that there’s no probability the Lakers would let Jokić off the hook that straightforward — I’m guessing that if taking part in Vanderbilt offers Denver too neat a hiding house/gunks up the offense too vital, Ham would lean more difficult on Hachimura, or even trudge smaller with more minutes for Round 2 folks hero Lonnie Walker IV — AG-on-AD creates but another, greater teach. If Gordon’s guarding AD, and Jokić is guarding whichever Laker Malone deems least threatening, then who’s guarding this man?

KCP and Murray, as competitive as they are, don’t delight in a prayer of banging with LeBron effectively enough to withhold him from getting wherever he desires to head. And even with LeBron carrying 20 NBA seasons and more than 65,000 approved- and postseason minutes spherical on a situation of wheels that involves a torn tendon in his fair foot, I’m now not definite Malone desires to assign that on Porter’s plate. Gordon could well perchance be Denver’s most effective bet on Davis, however he’s positively its most effective shot at matching up with LeBron — in particular when the Lakers trudge diminutive with the James/Hachimura frontcourt when AD’s off the ground, since he’s effectively taken over because the Nuggets’ backup center within the postseason. (James’ frail teammate, Jeff Inexperienced, will look some time in that matchup in this series, too; I’m now not definite what Malone’s appetite is for dusting off dudes cherish Vlatko Cancar and Zeke Nnaji, however if he’s trying to search out some dimension to utilize a pair of possessions on LeBron, they would perchance perhaps perchance merit a glimpse.)

James averaged 27 points and nine assists on fifty three.6% taking pictures within the Lakers’ 2020 series find; he offers a different, more bodily teach defensively than both KAT or KD did. If Gordon can limit him, and if the remainder of the Nuggets’ perimeter corps can withhold L.A.’s supporting forged from going off — how effectively KCP, Murray, Brown and Braun can possess Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell and Dennis Schröder within the pick-and-roll ought to be a undoubtedly exciting battleground — then Denver is also ready to clamp down enough to are living with whatever shatter Davis does in opposition to Jokić. But when Gordon doesn’t delight in a gigantic defensive series, the Lakers’ possibilities of springing the by-seed-line-if-nothing-else upset enhance severely.

Can the Lakers push the tempo?

L.A. can’t depend on fair being ready to head bucket-for-bucket in opposition to an opponent that ranked seventh within the NBA in half-court offensive effectivity all over the approved season and has been even better to this point within the playoffs. The Lakers delight in to search out alternatives to hit Denver on the counterattack, trying to find the roughly easy baskets you find attacking a scrambling defense by getting out on the fast ruin.

Solely six groups performed in transition more usually than the Lakers all over the approved season, in step with Cleaning the Glass. They’ve cranked that up but another notch within the postseason, running more usually than anybody moreover the Kings and Nets.

Turning defense into offense isn’t continually easy in opposition to a Nuggets crew that executed fair outdoors the kill 10 in offensive rebound price all over the approved season, recovered almost 28% of its misses in opposition to Minnesota and more than 30% in opposition to Phoenix, and has been one of the league’s most effective groups at getting attend to cease transition alternatives all season long. Just a few extra fast-find possessions can originate a predominant distinction, though. They absolutely did in opposition to the Warriors: Higher than 22% of the Lakers’ possessions came in transition of their blowout find in Game 3, and they scored more than 1.7 points per play on the ruin within the Game 6 closeout.

If the Lakers can withhold Jokić, Gordon and Co. off the offensive glass enough to certain the rebound and tilt the possession game their manner a pair of times in this series, they’ll rep some margin for error, taking pretty rigidity off every their half-court offense and a defense that figures to please in its work decrease out for it. If they can’t find a vogue to nick out some easy ones, though, the process of standing up to at least one of the most potent assaults within the league possession after possession begins to observe the total more daunting.