EUR/USD: Swap from recovery to sustainably lower phases might per chance maybe maybe occur round turn of the yr – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank focus on EUR/USD outlook.

Upside doable for EUR/USD within the coming months

“Within the coming months, EUR/USD is at risk of strengthen for the reason that ECB’s financial protection is at risk of be extra hawkish within the reach future and on account of this truth extra stunning from a forex market point of view than that of the Fed. Before the whole lot, this apparent advantage will come from the incontrovertible truth that the ECB is at risk of proceed raising passion rates while the Fed is now not, and later from the incontrovertible truth that the ECB is sticking to its most passion fee stage while the Fed is at risk of originate slicing rates.”

“Within the medium term, nonetheless, the ECB is maybe now not really extra hawkish than the Fed. On the contrary, the EUR strength we set apart a question to within the short term is on account of this truth unlikely to be sustainable. We suspect that the turnaround within the EUR/USD alternate fee might per chance maybe maybe uncover the turn of the yr.”

Source: Commerzbank Study

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